With only a year until the 2026 U.S. midterms, Eric Wilson outlined how narrow the battlefield has become — and how much campaigns now rely on data and technology to gain even fractional advantages. The conversation highlighted how voter behaviour, district competitiveness, and technological adoption are converging to make 2026 a cycle defined by precision.

A shrinking map of competitive districts

Wilson underscored how few swing districts remain:

“There just aren’t that many swing districts left… states have really drawn what amount to non-competitive districts.”

With Republicans and Democrats each starting with roughly 180 safe seats, control of the House depends on a small number of battlegrounds. As Wilson put it, campaigns are now fighting “a game of inches, or centimetres.”

Context shaping early strategy

Reflecting on recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Wilson noted the degree to which turnout patterns in off-years can serve as an early warning signal. These early results, he explained, help campaigns refine assumptions about voter motivation well before the main cycle begins:

"We got an early glimpse at what we call off-off-year elections… that showed what the high turnout of a presidential year helped boost."

Data-driven campaigning as the default

Although the transcript segments retrieved focus primarily on electoral context, Wilson consistently ties campaign decision-making to underlying data models — emphasising that teams now iterate strategy as new information arrives. He highlighted how closely digital teams monitor voter behaviour:

“We spend a lot of time trying to figure out how voters are motivated, how they use technology.”

This mindset reflects the broader transformation of U.S. political campaigns: data-led resource allocation, micro-segmentation and precise turnout modelling have become expectations, not innovations.

Strategic implications for 2026

Wilson stressed that even small structural shifts — such as the outcomes of state-level redistricting battles — could meaningfully reshape the map:

“We’re talking about, in the best-case scenario, giving Republicans a net of seven seats… but we’re probably not going to see best-case.”

The practical result is a cycle in which campaigns must operate with sharper forecasting, faster message testing and tighter coordination between digital, communications and field teams.

Looking ahead

The session underscored a clear theme: 2026 will reward campaigns that combine deep understanding of voter dynamics with strategic discipline. With so few competitive districts, and margins expected to be slim, the ability to adjust quickly — supported by precise data — will be decisive.

👉 For political professionals, the message is straightforward: integrate analytics early, monitor voter behaviour continuously, and prepare for an election where small shifts may determine control of the U.S. House.